Oscar predictions 2021

Every year I attempt to predict who will take home the Oscars in the ten “main” categories. I usually – but by no means always – do reasonably well, so here are my predictions for 2021’s awards ceremony.

Remember, these are who I think will win, not who I think should win! 

Best picture – Nomadland 

The momentum seems to be behind Nomadland, and while I think it’ll miss out on the acting Oscars, it seems to be the frontrunner for Best Picture and Best Director.

Nominees:
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best actress – Viola Davis (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom) 

After her Golden Globes win, there’s a chance that Andra Day could stage an upset, but this seems to be Viola Davis’ to lose (despite only appearing in 26 minutes and 41 seconds of the film).

Nominees:
Viola Davis - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Andra Day - The United States vs Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby - Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand - Nomadland
Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman

Best actor – Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom) 

Riz Ahmed and Anthony Hopkins are both long-shots, as it looks like Chadwick Boseman may become only the third actor to ever win an Oscar posthumously.

Nominees:
Riz Ahmed - Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins - The Father
Gary Oldman - Mank
Steven Yeun - Minari

Best supporting actress – Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari) 

While there was a lot of fuss made when Maria Bakalova received her unexpected nomination, it seems that Yuh-Jung Youn has emerged as the front-running in this category.

Nominees:
Maria Bakalova - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close - Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman - The Father
Amanda Seyfried - Mank
Yuh-Jung Youn – Minari

Best supporting actor – Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) 

Without wishing to jinx anything, this category feels like the one that probably the easiest to predict, as the ever-excellent Daniel Kaluuya looks likely to win the Oscar this time, having been nominated for Get Out (but he didn’t win).

Nominees:
Sacha Baron Cohen - The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr - One Night in Miami
Paul Raci - Sound of Metal
Lakeith Stanfield - Judas and the Black Messiah

Best director – Chloe Zhao (Nomadland) 

As I said above, while I think it’ll miss out on the acting Oscars, Nomadland seems to be the one to beat for the Best Picture and Best Director Oscars this year.

Nominees:
Another Round - Thomas Vinterberg
Mank - David Fincher
Minari - Lee Isaac Chung
Nomadland - Chloe Zhao
Promising Young Woman - Emerald Fennell

Best adapted screenplay – The Father 

I think The Father will be close-but-no-cigar in most categories, but I think that Best Adapted Screenplay could be the one where it finds some success.

Nominees:
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
The Father 
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The White Tiger

Best original screenplay – Promising Young Woman 

It’s a similar story for Promising Young Woman, where I don’t think it’s likely to win in any of the other “main” categories, but I think it could take home the Best Original Screenplay Oscar (especially after its recent BAFTA win in this category).

Nominees:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best cinematography – Nomadland 

I think that this is perhaps the hardest category to call this year, but I think Nomadland’s visually striking aesthetic may be enough for it to pull ahead of the other nominees.

Nominees:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
News of the World
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best costume design – Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 

Again, I think this is a close one to call (and I still don’t know why Coming 2 America wasn’t nominated), but Ma Rainey's Black Bottom’s combination of period costumes and showbiz flair may give it the slight advantage.

Nominees:
Emma
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
Mulan
Pinocchio

So there you have it – come back after the Oscars on 25 April to see how I did! Last year I only managed 6/10 and completely failed to predict Parasite’s success – so this year I’m hoping to do a little better!