Oscar predictions 2023

Every year I attempt to predict who will take home the Oscars in the ten “main” categories.  I usually – but by no means always – do reasonably well, so here are my predictions for 2023’s awards ceremony.

Remember, these are who I think will win, not who I think should win!

Best picture – Everything Everywhere All at Once

This category seems to be a relatively wide open, with major awards having already gone to All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin and The Fabelmans, but it looks like Everything Everywhere All at Once may just have the slight edge.

Nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking

Best actress – Cate Blanchett (Tár)

I really (really) want Michelle Yeoh to win, but I think Cate Blanchett’s more traditionally dramatic role may be the sort of performance that’s more likely to wow Oscar voters than Michelle Yeoh’s more daring performance in a bizarre sci-fi movie.

Nominees:
Cate Blanchett – Tár
Ana de Armas – Blonde
Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie
Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best actor – Brendan Fraser (The Whale)

There’s a chance Austin Butler could take this, given how much Oscar voters love biopics – but they also love a comeback story, and so the narrative may narrowly favour Brendan Fraser.

Nominees:
Austin Butler – Elvis
Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser – The Whale
Paul Mescal – Aftersun
Bill Nighy – Living

Best supporting actress – Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)

Will this be Marvel’s first acting Oscar win?  Angela Bassett’s performance in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is incredible, and it feels like the kind of performance that could give Oscar voters a chance to give a screen legend a much deserved Oscar win for their whole body of work (as much as this single performance).  But this category is not sewn up by any means.

Nominees:
Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau – The Whale
Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best supporting actor – Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

As I said, everyone loves a comeback story, and really, who doesn’t want to see Ke Huy Quan win an Oscar for his return to acting after over 30 years out of the limelight?

Nominees:
Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway
Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best director – Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Let’s face it, the lazy choice for Oscar voters here is Steven Spielberg, but really, how can anyone see the inventiveness and creativity that went into the direction of Everything Everywhere All at Once and not give the Oscar to Daniel Kwa and Daniel Scheinert?

Nominees:
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
Todd Field – Tár
Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness

Best adapted screenplay – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

I don’t know why Glass Onion and Top Gun: Maverick are classed as “adapted” screenplays – presumably solely because they’re sequels with a returning character?  Whatever the reason, Rian Johnson’s script for Glass Onion weaves such a complex yet satisfying muder mystery story, populated by fascinating characters and interspersed with memorable dialogue, if he doesn’t win, it’ll be further evidence that Oscar voters really have no time for anything that’s seen as ‘genre’ material.

Nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front – Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, Ian Stokell
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery – Rian Johnson
Living – Kazuo Ishiguro
Top Gun: Maverick – Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie
Women Talking – Sarah Polley

Best original screenplay – The Banshees of Inisherin

There’s a chance that Everything Everywhere All at Once could win here as well, but assuming that the crazy multiversal philosophic sci-fi epic is too out there for Oscar voters, The Banshees of Inisherin would seem to be a safer bet.

Nominees:
The Banshees of Inisherin – Martin McDonagh
Everything Everywhere All At Once – Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert
The Fabelmans – Tony Kushner, Steven Spielberg
Tár – Todd Field
Triangle of Sadness – Ruben Östlund

Best cinematography – All Quiet on the Western Front

While I don’t think All Quiet on the Western Front will win in any of the other ‘main’ categories, I think cinematography is where the Oscar voters may choose to recognise it.

Nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front – James Friend
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths – Darius Khondji
Elvis – Mandy Walker
Empire of Light – Roger Deakins
Tár – Florian Hoffmeister

Best costume design – Elvis

Oscar voters do love a biopic, and Elvis also included some impressive opportunities for extravagant costumes, so I suspect this is the category where that movie will do well.

Nominees:
Babylon – Mary Zophres
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – Ruth E Carter
Elvis – Catherine Martin
Everything Everywhere All At Once – Shirley Kurata
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris – Jenny Beavan

So there you have it – come back after the Oscars on 12 March to see how I did!  Last year I managed 9/10 … but I’m really not expecting to do that well this year!