Oscar predictions 2020

Every year I attempt to predict who will take home the Oscars in the ten “main” categories.  I usually – but by no means always – do reasonably well, so here are my predictions for 2020’s awards ceremony.

Remember, these are who I think will win, not who I think should win!

Best picture – 1917

The momentum seems to be behind 1917, which is an impressively technical piece of cinema and may have won over the Oscar voters for that reason.

Other nominees:

Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood
Parasite

Best actress – Renee Zellweger (Judy)

Oscar voters love (a) biopics, and (b) nostalgia about classic Hollywood, so Judy is likely to tick all of their boxes.

Other nominees:

Cynthia Erivo - Harriet
Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan - Little Women
Charlize Theron - Bombshell

Best actor – Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)

Whatever you think of the film as a whole (I thought it was great), Joaquin Phoenix’s performance is one of the most transformative of the year, and it carries the entire weight of the film, manipulating the audience’s emotions throughout the character’s journey.  This would be a well-deserved win.

Other nominees:

Antonio Banderas - Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood
Adam Driver - Marriage Story
Jonathan Pryce - The Two Popes

Best supporting actress – Laura Dern (Marriage Story)

Again, the momentum seems to be behind Laura Dern, and also - she’s Laura fricking Dern and deserves an Oscar for her whole body of work (which often comes into play with Oscar voters).

Other nominees:

Kathy Bates - Richard Jewell
Scarlett Johansson - Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh - Little Women
Margot Robbie - Bombshell

Best supporting actor – Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood)

Although I think Joe Pesci would be a worthy winner, I think the two nominations for The Irishman are likely to cancel each other out.  And even though I think Brad Pitt was better in Ad Astra, there’s no denying that he’s great in Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood, which (like Judy) also scores highly on the Hollywood nostalgia front.

Other nominees:

Tom Hanks - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins - The Two Popes
Al Pacino - The Irishman
Joe Pesci - The Irishman

Best director – Sam Mendes (1917)

I think Sam Mendes will take this, for the same reason that 1917 will take best film – it's a technically complex achievement, and one which will have impressed the Oscar voters.

Other nominees:

Martin Scorsese - The Irishman
Todd Phillips - Joker
Quentin Tarantino - Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood
Bong Joon-ho - Parasite

Best adapted screenplay – Little Women

I think this is arguably the closest category to call this year … I could see it going to The Irishman, but I think Little Women maybe has the slight advantage?  I think Jojo Rabbit would be too much of a leftfield choice for most Oscar voters … but you never know!

Other nominees:

The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
The Two Popes

Best original screenplay – Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood

In terms of who I think should win, it’s unquestionable Knives Out, which is one of the most intelligent, witty and complex scripts to come out of Hollywood in years.  But I feel that the Oscar voters may look down on the whodunit genre, and so the sense of Hollywood nostalgia generated by Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood may tip the balance in its favour.

Other nominees:

Knives Out
Marriage Story
1917
Parasite

Best cinematography – 1917

In fairness, I think all five nominees could potentially take it, and they’d each be a worthy winner – but again, I think the technical complexities of 1917 will be the deciding factor.

Other nominees:

The Irishman
Joker
The Lighthouse
Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood

Best costume design – Little Women

This category often throws a curveball into the mix, but I think the more “traditional” period drama Little Women will have the slight advantage over the other, more recent, “historical” films.

Other nominees:

The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood

So there you have it – come back after the Oscars on 9 February to see how I did!  Last year I only managed 6/10, but this year some of the main categories feels a little more predictable (or is that just tempting fate…?).