Oscar predictions 2024

Every year I attempt to predict who will take home the Oscars in the ten “main” categories.  I usually – but by no means always – do reasonably well, so here are my predictions for 2024’s awards ceremony.

Remember, these are who I think will win, not who I think should win!

Best picture – Oppenheimer

In one of the rare occasions where a popular, commercially successful film is also an Oscar frontrunner, this year the momentum appears to be behind Oppenheimer in most of the main categories.

Nominees:
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

Best actress – Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)

While there’s been a lot of praise for Emma Stone’s performance in Poor Things, I think the fact that she’s already an Oscar-winner will count against her in the voting, and I think the Academy members will favour Lily Gladstone this year.

Nominees:
Annette Bening – Nyad
Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Huller – Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan – Maestro
Emma Stone – Poor Things

Best actor – Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)

Having carried the movie almost single-handedly, Cillian Murphey’s performance in Oppenheimer is almost certain to take the prize here.

Nominees:
Bradley Cooper – Maestro
Colman Domingo – Rustin
Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction

Best supporting actress – Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

As much as I would love America Ferrera to win for her emotional monologue in Barbie (which was my Favourite Cinematic Moment of 2023), I think Da'Vine Joy Randolph is almost certain to win in this category (which I suspect will be The Holdovers’ only win in the main categories).

Nominees:
Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple
America Ferrera – Barbie
Jodie Foster – Nyad
Da'Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

Best supporting actor – Robert Downey Jr (Oppenheimer)

Hollywood loves a comeback story, and what better one than Robert Downey Jr coming back from his troubles at the start of the century to find massive commercial success in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, and then go on to find critical acclaim with his genuinely brilliant performance in Oppenheimer.

Nominees:
Sterling K Brown – American Fiction
Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr – Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling – Barbie
Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things

Best director – Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)

Christopher Nolan hasn’t won an Oscar yet, and I think the Academy members will rectify that oversight this year.

Nominees:
Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall
Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer
Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things
Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest

Best adapted screenplay – Barbie

If there is any justice in this world, Greta Gerwig (and Noah Baumbach) will take the Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar home as a “consolation prize” for Greta Gerwig not even being nominated for Best Director.  Barbie was not only the biggest commercial success of 2023, it was also universally critically acclaimed, and it managed to be both mainstream entertainment and about something real.  It was the work of a singular vision, and that vision was Greta Gerwig’s.  To my mind, there was no director who contributed more to cinema in 2023 … and as she can’t be recognised in the directing category, the least the Academy members can do is correct that egregious error by recognising her accomplishments as a writer.  (And don’t get me started on how no one in their right mind can describe the screenplay as an “adapted” work…).

Nominees:
American Fiction - Cord Jefferson
Barbie – Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach
Oppenheimer – Christopher Nolan
Poor Things – Tony McNamara
The Zone of Interest – Jonathan Glazer

Best original screenplay – Anatomy of a Fall

Although it perhaps lacked the cultural impact of some of the other nominees, the momentum seems to be behind Anatomy of a Fall in this category.

Nominees:
Anatomy of a Fall – Justine Triet & Arthur Harari
The Holdovers – David Hemingson
Maestro – Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer
May December – Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik
Past Lives – Celine Song

Best cinematography – Oppenheimer

The last of the “main” categories where I suspect Oppenheimer will find success is for Hoyte van Hoytema’s excellent cinematography, which helped to distinguish the movie from the standard biopic visual style.

Nominees:
El Conde – Edward Lachman
Killers of the Flower Moon – Rodrigo Prieto
Maestro – Matthew Libatique
Oppenheimer – Hoyte van Hoytema
Poor Things – Robbie Ryan

Best costume design – Poor Things

While I don’t think Poor Things will come out on top in any of the other main categories, I think it stands a good chance of being recognised for its costume design work.

Nominees:
Barbie – Jacqueline Durran
Killers of the Flower Moon – Jacqueline West
Napoleon – Janty Yates & Dave Crossman
Oppenheimer – Ellen Mirojnick
Poor Things – Holly Waddington

So there you have it – come back after the Oscars on 10 March to see how I did!  Last year I only got 5 out of 10 correct (one of my least successful attempts!) … so I’m hoping to improve on that this year.